Topic: The Rise of the Creative Class
Topic type: General
Scenario 2 (draft) of the Future of Public Libraries work being carried out in Australia, mid 2009.
Scenario 2 : The Rise of the Creative Class.
Original post and comments: http://toptrends.nowandnext.com/?p=623
In the beginning was the word and the word was good. But in the 1990s words became art supplies. Visual thinking had emerged as the hallmark of a new culture and the purveyors of mere words began to struggle. This is a fast-paced world where innovation drives the supply of an endless variety of novel products and services.
Attention spans drop, demand for snack-sized information grows (a vicious circle) and employment increasingly shifts to virtual, mobile and networked models where people can work where, when and with whom they like. Demand for vocational information increases but so too does demand for escapism and distraction.
On many levels it is a harmonious world. Customers are now the co-creators of many of the things that they consume, including entertainment and information. In this sense it is more democratic than 2009. Individuals that did not previously have a voice are now creating and distributing ideas. It is a world where content consumers feed off content producers and vice versa. Individuals and institutions are highly networked and highly collaborative and library users have developed the ability to shift effortlessly across multiple formats and modes of information.
Technology, as you’d expect, is highly coveted, whether it is the latest phone, the latest hybrid vehicle or the latest energy dashboard. It is a world of smart science and engineering: genetics, robotics and nanotechnology. Clean technology is huge as is planetary engineering, which solves some but not all of the problems relating to climate change.The internet and virtual worlds are also big, very big,although
most people now connect to online sources of information and entertainment via mobile phones not fixed devices like PCs or TVs. Online video is very popular, as is the spoken word but text-based information and entertainment is in decline. Hence, sales of physical books, newspapers and magazine are all falling.
As it turns out, this is not a flat world, as predicted by Thomas Friedman, but a very spiky one, as prophesied by Richard Florida. Global cities like Sydney and San Francisco attract entrepreneurs and innovators but other areas, especially rural areas, struggle to attract or retain creative talent. This Polarisation is very evident within public libraries, with the very best urban libraries attracting the very best library talent from around the world, whereas second and third tier libraries struggle to compete.
As a result, library funding and library services are effectively split into two.
Flagship libraries (generally, but not exclusively, located in urban centres) modernise and extend their services and start to provide services to other libraries for a fee. Funding for digital and life-long learning is available from a variety of commercial sources and this inevitably leads to the development of a range of user-pays and subscription services, which in turn reduce access and equity in some areas.
Ironically, whilst online learning, social networks and virtual worlds proliferate, physical libraries and physical artefacts do not die. Far from it. The sheer volume of fast-paced, byte-sized information that is now readily available to everyone creates a significant demand for the very opposite.
Many people, particularly parents with small children and seniors, now place a high value upon physical media and physical spaces (especially known library and information ‘brands’).
This is partly because physical objects and environments (including people) are regarded as having greater resilience and trustworthiness but it is also because physical things are attractive due to familiarly and aesthetics. In other words, after several decades of digital living it suddenly dawns on people that something is missing in their lives – and this thing turns out to be physical things; people, physical places and physical objects.
Libraries thus evolve into venues for the physical interaction between people and ideas - a strange mixture of slow analogue thinking spaces and fast ‘spot knowledge’ centres. Other services are then added, ranging from cafes, restaurants and childcare crèches to employment and immigration services. Libraries then develop a series of joint ventures including help kiosks in shopping centres, airports and hospitals and cerebral workout centres in hospitals.
Librarians also transform into highly valued knowledge assistants and navigators, adept both at sifting information (recommending certain sources or content over and above others) and at contextualising information and knowledge. Librarians also become content creators. Local history is not only archived but is created and filtered locally and librarians facilitate the open cataloguing of much material. This local content is also turned into highly profitable live events, many of which prove far more popular than the static collections from whence they came.
Local and State governments still provide funding to libraries, but this does not generally cover basic running costs. Hence libraries start to introduce a range of premium (paid) services, although, again, this raises all kinds of issues relating to access and equity. This ultimately leads to a new Libraries Act, which on the one hand widens library access but also creates a series of new pay-as-you-go library services.
Media formats themselves are still in a state of flux and this adds to costs, as does the constant churn of new e-book titles, vocational courses and staff turnover.
Draft Timeline
2010
- Library loans up 0.18% over previous year and 6.11% over past 5 years
- Kevin Rudd announces major Oz innovation funding
- Apple voted world’s coolest brands by Arnholt cool brands survey
- Libraries move towards open catalogues
- Samsung launch solar powered g-phone called the Solo
- Steve Jobs claims that reading is no longer important
- Libraries shift emphasis from distributing information to editing it
- IBM reveals that there are now one billion transistors for every person on the planet
2011
- Library users create 25% of library content
- Gov survey reveals that 90% of employees work for small and medium sized firms
- State funding for libraries now below that of public toilets
- Survey say that 90% of 12-16 year-olds now own a mobile phone
- Libraries become hyper-local news aggregators
2012
- Schools pay students to run IT support within schools
- Survey reveals that average person now has 120 digital friends
- Library collections polarised between vocational learning and escapist fiction
- Dymocks announces that 8 of the 10 best selling books in 2011 were TV related
- Sales of paper, pencils and pens continue to decline
- Librarians become facilitators for user generated media content
2013
- Due to litigation schools announce that all lessons will be video taped
- IBM announces $200 million library sponsorship deal
- Library events generate more visits than loans
- Libraries announce universal fee wi-fi in an attempt to compete with McDonald’s
- Siemens announce ‘global nervous system’ based on wireless sensors
- Singapore government completes universal free wi-fi initiative
2014
- Information increasingly ranked according to reliability
- Libraries introduce free to fee sliding scale of payments for information
- All NSW government services now accessible through virtualgov.com.au
- McDonald’s persuaded to give away snack-sized books with Happy Meals
- UKs new Poet Laureate announces that all of her poems will be written in txt
- Urban libraries roll out RFID on all books and other physical artefacts
2015
- Libraries announce that they will no longer retain physical copies of new books
- Libraries start charging for events, which become a significant new income stream
- State Library creates replica of Clive James’s library to mixed reviews
- Gov mandates that all library managers blog at least once a day
- Survey reveals major split between urban and rural library funding in NSW
- Federal gov rolls out national broadband strategy
2016
- Sony launches the long awaited ‘Readman’ digital reading glasses
- Mayhem as Google announces that Project Gutenberg only accessible from G-phones
- Westfield launches Book Butler services in all its shopping centres
- Sydney water charges customer $25 for paper bills
- Librarians transition from analogue gatekeeper to digital guides
- News Corp announces funding for the promotion of reading and informal learning
- Government’s smart library service comes to a halt due to a lack of funding
- Libraries offer evening dance classes
2017
- All school lessons for years 5-12 now available as downloads
- ABC introduce pay=per-view for all programming
- Survey by CBA says that 90% of 18-25 year-olds have never written a cheque
- Virtual book club meetings pull in 750,000 people per week across NSW
- Study reveals that successful libraries are all defined by three things; what’s there, who’s there and what’s going on there
2018
- NSW library network announces that visits are down 10% on 2015
- The ideas Store @ Surry Hills Public Library voted Australia’s best retailer
- 26 libraries across NSW close due to lack of funds
- Libraries become cornerstone of new cultural preservation industry
- Bottom falls out of the antiques market. People no longer want ‘old’ things
2019
- Libraries become favoured meeting places for teenagers and seniors
- Libraries offer yoga and meditation classes
- Seek.com.au announces funding for job kiosks in libraries
- SMH Survey says that people spend an average of 65 days per year in virtual worlds
- Information bartering and swap meets emerge
- Libraries start to charge users to charge mobile devices
2020
- Secure data back-up services prove an unexpected revenue generator for libraries
- Blacktown library re-brands its librarians as ‘information engineers’
- Paper use now down by 300% since 2009
- Information mediators revealed as the most in-demand profession by BRW magazine
- Survey says the average home contains 8 phones, 6 computers, 2 TVs and 12 books
- Top selling book of the decade is Cerebral Whiteout by Susan Greenfield
2021
- Rural libraries set up innovation spaces in conjunction with CSIRO
- Libraries offer drop in technology advice and repair
- 45% of employees no longer have physical place of work to go to each morning
- Library survey reveals that most popular services are: phone charging and toilets
- Top selling book of 2021 is I want it Now by Paris Hilton
2022
- Peak oil crisis and plastics shortage creates further confusion over media formats
- Survey reveals that 90% of people never switch their mobiles off
- Hyatt Hotels offer ‘information breaks’ to escape constant digital connectedness
- Increasing polarisation between technology haves and have nots
- All school examinations now digital
2023
- Libraries start to charge users that use a desk for more than 3-hours
- Over-55s exempted from 3-hour rule following ‘grey protests’
- Art Gallery of NSW creates digital collection and sells 50% of its physical collection
- Top five selling books of 2023 are all about Climate Change
2024
- Libraries shift towards the provision of recreational services
- With the exception of flagship libraries buildings become increasingly dilapidated
- Low funding in most libraries increases wait times to 30-mins for simple queries
- MIT study says that the average person now has to remember 36 passwords
- The internet is now 10,000 days old
2025
- Art Gallery of NSW merges with State Library and move into single building
- Libraries introduce staff selections – subjective listings of favourite information
- Apple announces that its iBooks store now contains 122,430,055 titles
- Facebook is now bigger than America, with a population of 456 million
2026
- Libraries start selling book collections to pay energy bills
- Building maintenance costs soar by 200% since 2015 due to climate change
- Most popular e-book of 2026 is Slow by Penny Wong
- 4.8 billion people now own mobile phones
2027
- Librarian that burnt books to heat the local library over winter is dismissed
- Apple says its new iPhone can hold 136,000 books.
2028
- Libraries widen their local influence with the introduction of information evenings
- Google buys the BBC
2029
- Average e-book now just 100 pages in length
- Spam declared world’s #1 issue
2030
- National Australia Bank offers technology loans to finance e-education requirements
- Libraries start to merge with churches
