2009+ 10 trends : Predictions and Provocations

Annual review of the year ahead by Richard Watson.

Filename: 2009_complete.pdf ( view )

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"Welcome to 2009.

This report is an annual review of the year ahead and
is generally fairly easy to put together. Not this year. The problem has
been events. More specifically, the speed at which things continue to change.
Impossible really is nothing these days.

Last year two key themes highlighted in the introduction were the question
of who would inherit the US economy (“an economy balanced on a knife
edge”) and the Beijing Olympics (“a coming out party for what will
one day be the largest and most powerful nation on earth… Maybe”).
This year two of the biggest questions are whether or not Barack Obama
can rebuild America’s shattered economy and reputation worldwide and whether
or not China will follow America into the economic twilight zone.

One major trend that flows from all this uncertainty is anxiety, which will in turn
drive an interest in safety, security and permanence. People are no longer in
the mood to experiment and we can therefore expect the return of simplicity,
no-frills, back to basics, seriousness, saving and fiscal conservatism.
The other thought that flows from current events is the degree to which
events follow historical or predictable patterns. One of the main reasons that
the world is in the mess it is today is that some people forgot about cycles.
People borrowed heavily to purchase what they wanted or used paper profits
created by real estate to support lifestyles that were unsustainable,
particularly if they had an eye on economic cycles or the performance of
real estate over a long enough period. Therefore, perhaps 2009 will be the
year when people finally say enough to the pervasive influence of materialism
and reconnect with some of the simpler pleasures of life. Perhaps we will
see a subtle cultural shift from ‘me’ to ‘we.’ We’ll see. If the economy picks
up sooner than expected I’d imagine that most people will just dust themselves
off and carry on as though nothing ever happened.

Richard Watson, January 2009."

Source: http://nowandnext.com/PDF/2009_complete.pdf